Schedule makers thought they were doing the Hurricanes a favor granting them a home bowl game, but with temperatures at about -20 back in Wisconsin, Badgers fans are looking for any excuse to leave the land of the cheese. #6 Wisconsin (12-1) is actually nearly a TD favorite against Miami (10-2). The number is set at 45.5 for the 12/30 college football free pick – which seems a bit on the low side.
Play the ‘Under’ In This Matchup of Defensive Stalwarts?
The total of 45.5 for the 12/30 college football free pick might seem a bit low, but not when you’ve got two of the best defenses in the country meeting up. The Badgers in fact have the #1 total defense in the country and are #1 versus the rush, #4 against the pass, and 3rd in points allowed. UW has allowed less than 17 points in eight of the past nine games but it might actually be the Badger offense that forces an ‘under’ in this contest. Alex Hornibrook has specifically struggled under center, completing less than 48% of his passes in two of the past three while throwing 6 INT over his last four games.
The Badgers aren’t the only solid defense in this game, as Miami is famous for their turnover disrupting attack. The ‘ Canes forced 17 interceptions and 13 turnovers on the year – a great sign going up against a Badgers quarterback that has struggled protecting the ball. The Hurricanes have a top 40 defense in total yards allowed and is 17th in points given up – less than 20 per game.
After Wisconsin smash Miami tonight I want someone from @espn and @CFBPlayoff to come to cleveland Ohio and apologize to me personally. Big team best conference in CFP and Bucks should’ve been in the playoffs
— Gregory Hart (@GregOnDemand216) December 31, 2017
How Does This Contest Go Over?
The Orange Bowl is a big game, but at the same time it’s not the FBS playoffs. Both Wisconsin and Miami were likely a win away in their conference championship games from playing in the final four. Sometimes just missing a shot at the national championship messes with a team’s psyche – which could lead to points and a lack of defense. UW has struggled at the quarterback position, but at the same time they’ve been putting up points lately. The Badgers have scored 24+ points in six of the last seven games but also allowed 238 yards rushing to OSU in the Big Ten Championship game. UW has the ground game to compensate for their quarterback woes as Jonathan Taylor has 130+ yards in four of the past five games.
The Hurricanes have been down a bit on offense, scoring just 17 points in their last two games. Miami did score 24+ points in every game prior this season however. One of the biggest trends heading towards an ‘over’ in the 12/30 college football free pick is actually the Miami defense. The ‘Canes have allowed 90 total points in the past three games – two of which they were at least -12 point favorites.
Miami +6.5
Hurricanes too athletic and fast for the badgers. Wisconsin isn’t exactly a high powered offense. Remember the last time The U played at night against a midwest team? (ND). They’ll be up for the this one. Take the points. FYI, underdogs are 3-0 today..
— MikeK (@MiKeChek_1212) December 31, 2017
12/30 College Football Free Pick – Betting
Wisconsin seems like a weird favorite as most people equated the Badgers success to a pretty weak schedule. Either way, the Badgers are favored by 56% of the public, the fourth most popular pick of the day. As for the total, it is pretty low – but the Badgers are up against the fastest defense they’ll see this season. Miami quarterback Malik Rosier has only thrown for over 200 yards once in the past five games which means the Canes must rely on their running game versus UW’s #1 rushing attack. Combine all those factors together and the 12/30 college football free pick has the makings for an under.
Pick: Wisconsin Badgers / Miami Hurricanes ‘Under’ 45.5
