The stage is set for the Big Ten Conference Tournament title game featuring the top-seeded Purdue Boilermakers (28-5, 15-5 Big Ten) and the 10th-seed Penn State Nittany Lions (22-10, 10-10 Big Ten). Purdue got to the title game with victories over Rutgers and Ohio State, while the Nittany Lions advanced with triumphs over Illinois, Northwestern and Indiana.
Sunday’s title contest tips off at 3:30 p.m. EST inside the United Center in Chicago, Illinois. Purdue is a 7.5-point favorite, while the over/under total is 135.5 points.
What to Know – #5 Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue captured the regular season conference title and will try to add the tournament title to their resume. The win would be just the second time the Boilermakers hoist the tournament title, the first coming in 2009. A win should also solidify the Boilermakers and one of the four top-seeds in the upcoming NCAA Tournament.
Offensively, Purdue ranks fourth in the league in scoring, tallying 73.3 points per game thanks to 46.2% shooting from the floor and 33.1% from beyond the arc. On defense, the Boilermakers are third in the Big Ten, limiting opponents to 62.7 ppg, 41.7% shooting from the field and 31.4% from three.
The Boilermakers are 13-19-1 against the spread to-date and 5-2 ATS in seven games played on a neutral floor. Recent trends show over its last five contests Purdue has covered the spread only once.
What to Know – Penn State Nittany Lions
The run by Penn State through the Big Ten Tournament might have taken the Nittany Lions off the bubble and firmly into The Big Dance. Most projected models have Penn State as a 10-seed heading into the title. PSU can eliminate any doubt with a victory over Purdue.
Penn State’s offense is seventh in the conference in averaging 72.5 ppg behind 46.5% shooting from the field and 38.7% from the 3-point line. Defensively, PSU is eighth in the Big Ten, holding opposing teams to 68.4 ppg, 43.1% shooting from the floor and 33.7% from deep.
The Nittany Lions are 20-13-1 ATS with a 6-1 mark ATS on a neutral floor. Penn State is 2-4 ATS over its previous six games against the Purdue Boilermakers.
The Pick is In
The Boilermakers have dominated the conference all season and had no issues disposing of the Buckeyes yesterday in a 14-point victory. We don’t see that changing in the title game which we expect Big Ten Player of the Year Zach Edey to cause significant matchup problems for the Nittany Lions guard-heavy lineup.
Looking back at the regular season, Purdue owned both matchups by 13 and 20 points. Purdue held slight advantages at halftime before putting the game out of reach in the second half. We see another similar outcome, with a close first half followed by the gap widening after halftime and the Boilermakers cruising to victory.
The Pick: #5 Purdue Boilermakers -7.5
