The Houston Texans (10-7) travel to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) on Saturday, January 18, 2025, at 4:30 PM ET in the AFC Divisional Playoffs. Kansas City, the top seed in the AFC, comes off a first-round bye, while Houston enters after dominating the Los Angeles Chargers 32-12 in the Wild Card round.
These teams last met on December 21, 2024, when the Chiefs defeated the Texans 27-19 at Arrowhead. Patrick Mahomes passed and rushed for touchdowns in that game, while C.J. Stroud threw for two scores but was intercepted twice. The Texans aim to avenge that loss and reach their first-ever AFC Championship Game, while the Chiefs look to continue their bid for a third straight Super Bowl title.
Houston Texans Preview – Building Momentum in the Playoffs
The Texans’ defense set the tone in their Wild Card victory, intercepting Justin Herbert four times, including a pick-six by Eric Murray. Will Anderson Jr. and Mario Edwards Jr. each recorded 1.5 sacks, pressuring Herbert throughout the game. Houston’s defense has embraced an aggressive mindset under coordinator Matt Burke, focusing on creating turnovers and controlling the tempo.
On offense, rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud led with 282 passing yards and a touchdown against the Chargers. Running back Joe Mixon, who is questionable for this matchup, added 106 rushing yards and a score. The Texans will rely on Stroud’s composure and the playmaking abilities of Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz to attack Kansas City’s secondary.
Houston’s offensive line will need to protect Stroud against a Chiefs defense featuring Chris Jones, who is expected to return from a calf injury. If the Texans can establish the run and limit turnovers, they could keep this game close.
Kansas City Chiefs Preview – Quest for Three-Peat
The Chiefs have been dominant all season, finishing with the NFL’s best record at 15-2. Patrick Mahomes enters the playoffs with a chance to tie Joe Montana for the second-most playoff wins by a quarterback (16). Despite dealing with an ankle injury, Mahomes is expected to start and lead Kansas City’s high-powered offense.
Kansas City’s defense, ranked ninth in yards allowed, will focus on limiting Stroud and forcing the Texans into long third downs. The return of Chris Jones boosts the defensive line, while linebacker Nick Bolton leads the team in tackles. Cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and L’Jarius Sneed will look to contain Houston’s receiving corps.
On offense, Mahomes will look to his top targets, Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster, to exploit mismatches. Running back Isiah Pacheco, questionable with a rib injury, could play a key role if cleared. The Chiefs have proven they can win close games, with 11 of their victories decided by eight points or fewer this season.
Betting Prediction
The Chiefs are 8.5-point favorites, with the total set at 42.5. Kansas City’s experience and depth give them the edge, but Houston’s defense and Stroud’s growth make the Texans a dangerous underdog. Expect a competitive game where turnovers could be the deciding factor.
Projected final score: Chiefs 27, Texans 20. The Chiefs should cover the spread, and the total leans slightly toward the under, given both defenses’ ability to limit explosive plays.
Pick: Chiefs -8.5, Under 42.5
