Thursday May 4th Braves at Marlins Betting Preview
Atlanta Goes for Sweep, But Miami the Slight Favorite
It’s been a great road trip for Atlanta so far, taking two of three in New York and then the first two of their series against Miami but that shouldn’t be a huge surprise as this team is 14-3 in away tilts this season. Despite that success, the visitors are the slightest of underdogs in the May 4th Braves at Marlins betting matchup.
Miami is -115 for Thursday’s series finale, with oddsmakers perhaps thinking Atlanta (-109) will be content with two series wins on the road against divisional opponents. The Braves have had to make some moves in their rotation with Max Fried being pushed back to a Friday start, so maybe the Marlins do salvage one here.
Why Atlanta Has Value Here
This is almost a lock-it-in play with the Braves (21-10) priced at just -105. That may look like somewhat of a trap play, but Atlanta got a 6-0 win in the series opener as +106 underdogs up against Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara.
The Braves managed 3ER over 5.0 IP against Alcantara on Tuesday, and their offense kept rolling with a 14-6 victory on Wednesday powered by 18 hits. Marcell Ozuna hit 2HRs including a grand slam and altogether the Atlanta bats crushed six HRs as they have now won seven of their last nine overall.
The one concern for Atlanta in the May 4th Braves at Marlins betting matchup is their pitching. Kyle Wright left Wednesday’s game after just 2.0 IP causing Brian Snitker to use five relievers. Thursday starter Dylan Dodd is a call-up after Fried’s start got pushed back a day, and Dodd got tagged for 7 ER in MLB action back on April 9th against San Diego.
Why Miami Has Value Here
The Marlins being -115 favorites even against the red hot Braves would suggest a Miami win even though that theory didn’t work out so well on Tuesday at -115 behind Alcantara. The big difference here is that the Miami offense isn’t facing Bryce Elder, and instead Dodd who has a 7.71 ERA in two appearances this season.
Miami has had a rough go in this series, but they did post four straight wins prior including a 5-4 victory over these Braves in Atlanta on April 27th to cash at +148. The Marlins pitching was horrible on Wednesday, but on the bright side their offense did scratch out 12 hits including a 3-4 night including a 2-run HR from Jesus Sanchez.
Jesus Luzardo (2-1, 3.48 ERA) gets the ball for Miami on Thursday trying to salvage one win this series. The Marlins have won four of his five starts this year, and Luzardo has held Atlanta to a combined .184 BA in his career.
Free Braves at Marlins Betting Pick
There’s never anything wrong with taking Atlanta, especially with such a favorable price tag. The Braves offense has looked great this series but the Marlins have the pitching edge in the series finale. Atlanta wants the sweep, but they could also be content with the series win and looking forward to getting back home. The line says take Miami.
Free Pick: Marlins -115
